Former President Donald Trump has closed the gap on Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in over a month, according to polling by The Economist/YouGov.In the latest survey by the pollster conducted from September 8 to September 10, out of 1,626 U.S. adults, the presidential candidates were tied at 45 percent. It is the first time that Harris didn’t lead Trump in the weekly poll since July, when the former president was leading his Democratic opponent by 3 percentage points (44 percent to 41 percent) shortly after Harris entered the race.The Economist/YouGov poll, however, concluded before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. A separate YouGov survey held immediately after the onstage clash found that most debate-watchers thought Harris won the contest.In polling last week by The Economist/YouGov, performed from September 1 to September 3, Harris was beating Trump by 2 percentage points (47 percent to 45 percent). The Democratic nominee held the same lead throughout most of last month, including at the beginning, when Harris was leading Trump 45 percent to 43 percent in a survey from August 4 to August 6.Harris enjoyed a wave of momentum in the first few weeks of her campaign. But in the days leading up to the debate, some pollsters warned that the race was starting to shift toward the former president. On Sunday, The New York Times and Siena College released a poll that found Trump leading by 1 percentage point, although at the time Harris still held a 2-point edge above Trump on average across national polls.Election forecasts by Nate Silver, founder of polling analyst site FiveThirtyEight, have also moved in Trump’s favor. As of Monday, the former president was given his highest chance of winning the Electoral College since July, at 60.1 percent. Harris received a 39.7 percent chance.Despite the apparent shift, preliminary polling points to an extremely tight race between the candidates come November, and some experts have said that Harris could expect a polling boost following her strong debate performance on Tuesday.It remains unclear how much of an impact the debate could have on Harris’ chances of winning in November. As political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek on Wednesday via text, “Debates can shape narratives and provide key moments, but their significance often depends on the viewer’s perspective.””For deeply entrenched voters, they may reinforce existing beliefs rather than shift opinions,” Agranoff added. “In a race as polarized as this one, even a perceived loss for Trump might not move the needle significantly, as many voters have already made up their minds.”Newsweek reached out to Trump and Harris’ campaigns via email Wednesday.
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