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The agency said the aging population and low birthrates mean that migration will be the key driver of Canada’s growth for the foreseeable future. “Natural increase — that is, the balance of births minus deaths — would play only a marginal role, given the anticipated rise in the number of deaths due to population aging, as well as low fertility, a situation observed in many other countries,” Statistics Canada said in the projection. Ottawa-based demographer Doug Norris said Canada’s population has been on an aging trend for many years as the baby boomer demographic gets older. Norris, chief demographer at data consultancy Environics Analytics, said the senior population will put double the pressure on the labour market because people are not only aging out of the work they provide but also aging into needing services provided by others. “We’ve heard a lot recently about long-term care, about the need for support for people to perhaps age in place, live in their residence for as long as they can, that help with that is needed,” he said. “Related to all of that is our need for workers to work in long-term care facilities, to work more generally in the health area, simply because the demands for those kinds of services are going to increase tremendously.”

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