Northern insecurity may threaten Tinubu’s re-election – Arewa group

The Arewa Youth Consultative Forum has stated that President Bola Tinubu may have difficulty securing northerners’ support in 2027 if he fails to tame the insecurity in the region and deliver on his other campaign promises. AYCF National President, Yerima Shettima, expressed this view on Wednesday during an interview with our correspondent. Although Shettima acknowledged that the challenges confronting Nigeria predated the Tinubu-led administration, he emphasised that the way the President handles these issues will determine if the North will support his re-election in 2027. He said, “As the 2027 elections approach, sentiment in the North is likely to be influenced by the administration’s performance in addressing critical issues. If the Tinubu administration fails to ameliorate rising insecurity and fulfil its promises of inclusive governance, voter sentiment may shift towards a candidate more aligned with northern aspirations. “However, the prospect of a definitive change in voting patterns remains contingent upon the broader political landscape, including the roles of other regions and parties in the electoral process. “When considering the North’s response to the current administration, it’s essential to contextualize these reactions against the backdrop of previous leaderships, notably that of former President Muhammadu Buhari. As a northern leader, Buhari’s tenure saw a rise in insecurity, including widespread banditry and insurgency. Many northern Nigerians tolerated these issues due to perceived regional loyalty and the expectation of better outcomes. “The enduring reality is that the challenges facing the North are not exclusively tied to the origin of leadership. Instead, they result from systemic failures that have plagued Nigeria’s governance framework for decades. While the Tinubu administration faces scrutiny, it’s important to recognize that many of the North’s issues existed before his leadership.” While pledging that the AYCF was prepared to give the current administration the benefit of the doubt, Shettima added that they expected President Tinubu to provide the necessary leadership to tackle insecurity, revive the economy, and address communal crises across the country. “Liberal organisations like the AYCF will take a more cautious approach towards the Tinubu administration. While maintaining a critical eye on governance, the AYCF is willing to give the administration a period of grace to demonstrate its capacity for effective leadership. “This approach is rooted in a pragmatic understanding that stability and good governance require time for assessment and adjustment. The hope remains that the Tinubu administration will confront the pressing issues of insecurity, economic instability, and inter-communal strife head-on, applying lessons learned from past administrations. “The core challenge confronting Nigeria transcends geographic divides. It’s fundamentally a question of attitude—a reflection of how leadership engages with the populace and addresses their needs. Should the Tinubu administration remain unresponsive to the genuine concerns of all Nigerians, including those from the North, it risks galvanizing broader support for candidates who can empathize and advocate for equitable representation and security.”